United Rail Passenger Alliance (URPA) respectfully submits
this Statement to the Subcommittee. URPA is an independent national research
and education organization on rail passenger transportation issues.
Amtrak’s response to the Covid-19 epidemic has been
schizophrenic. At the same time it undertook a campaign to clean its stations
and trains to reduce the risk of virus propagation, and a masking requirement
for employees and customers, it has also prejudiced the mobility needs of the
American public by announcing the withdrawal of the majority of its train
services in the only part of its business where Americans have returned to
using trains in large numbers. It makes no sense to reduce operations in its
largest, most productive and most commercially-successful business segment, the
national system of inter-regional trains, just as demand for these services has
rebounded more than anywhere else in the system.
URPA applauds Amtrak’s cleaning and masking (and social
distancing) initiatives. But URPA condemns
Amtrak’s abandonment of the demonstrated transport needs of the American public
at a time of crisis brought about by the Covid-19 epidemic.
Amtrak has deceived the Subcommittee in respect to the
performance and prospects of its three operating divisions, the Inter-regional
trains, the state-sponsored intra-regional corridors, and the federally-subsidized
Northeast Corridor (NEC).
Contrary to Amtrak’s misrepresentations, the inter-regional
group of trains is Amtrak’s largest, most productive and most
commercially-successful segment. These are the trains to which Americans have
turned during the Covid-19 epidemic.
The inter-regional group of trains (sometimes referred to
as “long-distance” trains) is Amtrak’s largest business—it carries the most
intercity passengers of any segment of Amtrak’s operation. NEC trains’
passengers consist predominantly of customers who are classified by the
Department of Transportation as commuters,
not intercity passengers; the
intercity component of Amtrak’s NEC traffic is no more numerous than the
intercity component of the inter-regional trains, and in some years, less. (In
many years, the state-sponsored corridor trains also carry more intercity
passengers than do Amtrak’s NEC trains, leaving the NEC—in terms of true
intercity passengers carried—as Amtrak’s smallest
The inter-regional trains are also Amtrak’s most
productive. They have the highest load factors in the entire system (50-60+%,
in operations where an annual load factor of 65% is a sold-out condition due to
the large number of stations served and the regular turnover of passengers en
route; on the western inter-regional trains, it is customary for each seat and
berth to turn over on average 2 ½ times per trip). The load factor in the NEC
by contrast rarely exceeds 50%, and south of Philadelphia and east of New Haven
Amtrak’s NEC trains arithmetically cannot have load factors that exceed
28%–more than two-thirds of their proffered inventory goes unsold, a most
unproductive use of scarce federal subsidy capital. In the traffic vacuum in
the NEC during the Covid-19 epidemic, these NEC load factors are even lower.
The inter-regional trains also always produce 150-200% more
transportation output annually than
do the NEC or state-sponsored corridor trains. Output is measured in annual
revenue passenger miles (not “ridership,” which merely measure transactions).
This is the most important index of size and productivity of a passenger
transportation network, and nothing else that Amtrak does comes even close to
the inter-regional trains in producing annual passenger miles. This is doubly
so in the Covid-19 epidemic. (The state-sponsored corridors produce about the
same output each year as does the NEC.)
The interregional trains are also the most commercially
successful trains that Amtrak operates, measured by their market share for
intercity passenger transport. In their respective corridors, the
inter-regional trains ordinarily generate market shares of 5 to 6%. In the NEC,
Amtrak’s market share (not the air-rail modal split that Amtrak sometimes
publishes) for intercity passenger transport in the region rarely reaches as
high as 1 1/2 %, and that has shrunk for decades. Today, intercity buses carry
more passengers in the NEC than do Amtrak’s trains.
In the current Covid-19 epidemic, Amtrak’s transaction
volume (“ridership”) and output plummeted. But they did not do so uniformly
across the system. Amtrak has tried to deceive the public and the federal
government by emphasizing its system totals rather than breaking out the
separate performance in the epidemic of its three operating divisions. The
inter-regional trains fell far less than did the shorter corridor trains, and
the NEC fell the furthest. At the same time that Acela demand dropped to zero,
the inter-regional trains initially retained 15% of their demand, and then
quickly rebounded, in some cases to near-normal levels.
As the system struggles to recover—as Americans regain
their confidence to make intercity trips—the inter-regional trains have
recovered far faster than the corridors, and especially the business
travel-dependent NEC, which remains severely depressed. URPA research suggests
that the western inter-regional trains, by sharp contrast, recovered to normal,
pre-epidemic, traffic levels during the late Spring and Summer peak period.
This finding is corroborated by the fact that in the four
months ending July 31, 2020, the inter-regional trains brought Amtrak more
revenue, and URPA believes more revenue passenger miles, than all of the other trains (including in
the NEC) combined.
Based on these objective and relevant criteria, therefore,
the inter-regional trains are, and remain during the epidemic, Amtrak’s
largest, strongest, most successful, and most relevant group of trains. The
inter-regional trains, in fact, appear to be the trains that serve the demonstrated
demand of a clear majority of American travelers for rail transport during the
Covid-19 epidemic, just as in more normal times..
Against this background, Amtrak’s decision to charge ahead
with procurement, testing and deployment of costly new high-speed Avelia trains
in the NEC—a market for which demand has dropped to and remained near
zero—while eliminating even once-a-day services in its largest, most
productive, and highest-demand segment, the inter-regional routes (except Auto
Train), is bizarre, biased, political and irrational. Amtrak could not have
more disserved the American public during the Covid-19 epidemic than by
reducing the frequencies of its inter-regional trains.
Amtrak’s coy hints that the interregional trains might be
retained if only congress appropriates massive new subsidies is exactly the
same ploy, in almost exactly the same terminology, that Amtrak used in 2002
after the roll-out of the Acela program in the NEC exhausted the company’s cash
and rendered it insolvent. Congress should not allow itself to be taken in
again. Instead, congress should insist that Amtrak use its existing resources
first to sustain the trains that customers are actually using: the heavily-used national network of
United Rail Passenger Alliance
Andrew C. Selden, President